SPRUCE Ecological Forecasting System

EcoPAD is an interactive Model-Experiment (ModEx) system that assimilates various data streams into models in a rigorous way to constrain model parameters and system states, improve ecological prediction, and quantify associated uncertainty. The system provides feedback to experimenters on which data sets are needed to further improve model predictions and to modelers on which parts of a model need to be improved.

Specifically, the system will  (read more)

  • Predict what ecosystems may respond to treatments once you selected a site and decide your experimental plan.
  • Assimilate data you are collecting along your experiment to constrain model prediction.
  • Project what ecosystem responses may likely be in the rest of your experiment.
  • Tell you what are those important datasets you may want to collect in order to understand the system.
  • Periodically update the projections.
  • Improve the models, the data assimilation system, and your experiments during the process.

EcoLAB assimilates multiple streams of data from the SPRUCE experiment to the TECO model using MCMC algorithm, and then makes forecasts of ecosystem dynamics. Effects of warming and elevated [CO2] on carbon fluxes and pool sizes are forecast.

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Check out the demo of Ecological Forecasting at SPRUCE (weekly) on the Ecological Platform for Assimilation of Data web page:  http://ecolab.cybercommons.org/ecopad_portal/#

Forecasting of GPP and ER are automated at weekly timescale. Mean trajectory and confidence interval were derived from 100 stochastic simulations. In each simulation, parameters were randomly chosen from previous (or default) Data Assimilation task. Forcing variables linked to SPRUCE ftp site where updated hourly.

Multiple streams of data from SPRUCE experiment are assimilated to the TECO model and then forecasting of ecosystem dynamics (GPP).